{"id":10918,"date":"2008-06-11T08:00:17","date_gmt":"2008-06-11T08:00:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/atifunaldi.wordpress.com\/?p=11"},"modified":"2008-06-11T08:00:17","modified_gmt":"2008-06-11T08:00:17","slug":"cyborg-technologies-and-ray-kurzweil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/atif.unaldi.org\/blog\/2008\/06\/11\/cyborg-technologies-and-ray-kurzweil\/","title":{"rendered":"Cyborg technologies and Ray Kurzweil…"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"TheRay Kurzweil, the futurist, who sold his self developed voice recognition engine to Microsoft, used on windows and office software. But now he is working on the cyborg technology, which extends the personal abilites of mankind (I mean humankind \ud83d\ude42 hehehe)<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Before we get to Ray Kurzweil\u2019s plan for upgrading the \u201csuboptimal software\u201d in your brain, let me pass on some of the cheery news he brought to the World Science Festival last week in New York.<\/p>\n

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<\/a><\/p>\n

Do you have trouble sticking to a diet? Have patience. Within 10 years, Dr. Kurzweil explained, there will be a drug that lets you eat whatever you want without gaining weight.<\/p>\n

Worried about greenhouse gas emissions? Have faith. Solar power may look terribly uneconomical at the moment, but with the exponential progress being made in nanoengineering, Dr. Kurzweil calculates that it\u2019ll be cost-competitive with fossil fuels in just five years, and that within 20 years all our energy will come from clean sources.<\/p>\n

Are you depressed by the prospect of dying? Well, if you can hang on another 15 years, your life expectancy will keep rising every year faster than you\u2019re aging. And then, before the century is even half over, you can be around for the Singularity, that revolutionary transition when humans and\/or machines start evolving into immortal beings with ever-improving software.<\/p>\n

At least that\u2019s Dr. Kurzweil\u2019s calculation. It may sound too good to be true, but even his critics acknowledge he\u2019s not your ordinary sci-fi fantasist. He is a futurist with a track record and enough credibility for the National Academy of Engineering to publish<\/a> his sunny forecast for solar energy<\/a>.<\/p>\n

He makes his predictions using what he calls the Law of Accelerating Returns, a concept he illustrated at the festival with a history of his own inventions for the blind. In 1976, when he pioneered a device that could scan books and read them aloud, it was the size of a washing machine.<\/p>\n

Two decades ago he predicted that \u201cearly in the 21st century\u201d blind people would be able to read anything anywhere using a handheld device. In 2002 he narrowed the arrival date to 2008. On Thursday night at the festival, he pulled out a new gadget the size of a cellphone, and when he pointed it at the brochure for the science festival, it had no trouble reading the text aloud.<\/p>\n

This invention, Dr. Kurzweil said, was no harder to anticipate than some of the predictions he made in the late 1980s, like the explosive growth of the Internet in the 1990s and a computer chess champion by 1998. (He was off by a year \u2014 Deep Blue\u2019s chess victory came in 1997.)<\/p>\n

\u201cCertain aspects of technology follow amazingly predictable trajectories,\u201d he said, and showed a graph of computing power starting with the first electromechanical machines more than a century ago. At first the machines\u2019 power doubled every three years; then in midcentury the doubling came every two years (the rate that inspired Moore\u2019s Law); now it takes only about a year.<\/p>\n

Dr. Kurzweil has other graphs showing a century of exponential growth in the number of patents issued, the spread of telephones, the money spent on education. One graph of technological changes goes back millions of years, starting with stone tools and accelerating through the development of agriculture, writing, the Industrial Revolution and computers. (For details, see nytimes.com\/tierneylab<\/a>.)<\/p>\n

Now, he sees biology, medicine, energy and other fields being revolutionized by information technology. His graphs already show the beginning of exponential progress in nanotechnology, in the ease of gene sequencing, in the resolution of brain scans. With these new tools, he says, by the 2020s we\u2019ll be adding computers to our brains and building machines as smart as ourselves.<\/p>\n

This serene confidence is not shared by neuroscientists like Vilayanur S. Ramachandran, who discussed future brains with Dr. Kurzweil at the festival. It might be possible to create a thinking, empathetic machine, Dr. Ramachandran said, but it might prove too difficult to reverse-engineer the brain\u2019s circuitry because it evolved so haphazardly.<\/p>\n

\u201cMy colleague Francis Crick<\/a> used to say that God is a hacker, not an engineer,\u201d Dr. Ramachandran said. \u201cYou can do reverse engineering, but you can\u2019t do reverse hacking.\u201d<\/p>\n

Dr. Kurzweil\u2019s predictions come under intense scrutiny in the engineering magazine IEEE Spectrum, which devotes its current issue to the Singularity. Some of the experts writing in the issue endorse Dr. Kurzweil\u2019s belief that conscious, intelligent beings can be created, but most think it will take more than a few decades.<\/p>\n

He is accustomed to this sort of pessimism and readily acknowledges how complicated the brain is. But if experts in neurology and artificial intelligence (or solar energy or medicine) don\u2019t buy his optimistic predictions, he says, that\u2019s because exponential upward curves are so deceptively gradual at first.<\/p>\n

\u201cScientists imagine they\u2019ll keep working at the present pace,\u201d he told me after his speech. \u201cThey make linear extrapolations from the past. When it took years to sequence the first 1 percent of the human genome, they worried they\u2019d never finish, but they were right on schedule for an exponential curve. If you reach 1 percent and keep doubling your growth every year, you\u2019ll hit 100 percent in just seven years.\u201d<\/p>\n

Dr. Kurzweil is so confident in these curves that he has made a $10,000 bet with Mitch Kapor, the creator of Lotus software. By 2029, Dr. Kurzweil wagers, a computer will pass the Turing Test by carrying on a conversation that is indistinguishable from a human\u2019s.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m not as confident those graphs are going to hold up for fields besides computer science, so I\u2019d be leery of betting on a date. But if I had to take sides in the 2029 wager, I\u2019d put my money on Dr. Kurzweil. He could be right once again about a revolution coming sooner than expected. And I\u2019d hate to bet against the chance to be around for this one.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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Su ve Toprak isminde iki \u00e7ocu\u011fu vard\u0131r.","sameAs":["http:\/\/atif.unaldi.org\/blog","https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/atifunaldi","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/atifunaldi\/","https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/atifunaldi","https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/atifunaldi","https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/c\/atifunaldi","https:\/\/soundcloud.com\/atif-unaldi","https:\/\/atifunaldi.tumblr.com"],"url":"http:\/\/atif.unaldi.org\/blog\/author\/atifunaldi\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/atif.unaldi.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10918","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/atif.unaldi.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/atif.unaldi.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/atif.unaldi.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/atif.unaldi.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10918"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/atif.unaldi.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10918\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/atif.unaldi.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10918"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/atif.unaldi.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10918"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/atif.unaldi.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10918"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}